CryptoQuant says Bitcoin is repeating a 2022-style bear market structure after failing at the 200-day average.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) is following a price structure similar to the March 2022 bear market, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Head of Research Julio Moreno published the analysis on May 20. He identified the 200-day moving average near $82,400 as the resistance level that stopped the recent recovery.
BTC rose approximately 37% from its April 2026 lows before stalling at that level and falling to as low as $76,000. In March 2022, BTC posted a 43% recovery from its cycle lows before hitting the same moving average and turning lower. Moreno described a failure to break above the 200-day moving average as "the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact."
Bull Score Drops Back to “Extremely Bearish”
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell from 40 to 20 as of May 20. The firm classifies a reading of 20 as "extremely bearish" territory. That matches the readings recorded during the February-March 2026 period, when BTC traded between $60,000 and $66,000. Moreno noted that readings between zero and 20 have historically preceded further price declines or prolonged sideways movement.
Demand across multiple market segments is also contracting. Speculative demand via perpetual futures, which drove much of the April-May 2026 rally, slowed sharply after BTC crossed $82,000. Traders began closing leveraged long positions at that level, and spot demand has been contracting at a slightly faster pace.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shifted from net buyers to net sellers. ETFs sold approximately 4,000 BTC on a net basis after purchasing as much as 64,000 BTC during a 30-day window earlier in May 2026. Analysts at Bitfinex separately said the pace of the sell-off points to a structural shortfall that had been underlying the brief recovery throughout.
The Coinbase BTC price premium remained negative during both the April-May rally and the correction that followed. A negative premium indicates that US institutional and retail investors have not returned to the market in a meaningful way. Sustained bull markets have historically coincided with a positive Coinbase premium, Moreno noted.
Moreno identified $70,000 as the next key support level, corresponding to the Traders' Onchain Realized Price. At that level, traders would hold zero or negative unrealized profit, which historically reduces selling incentive and allows demand to stabilize. BTC was trading at approximately $77,320 on May 20, up roughly 0.6% over the prior 24 hours.
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