Bitcoin demand fell to its lowest level since January as ETF outflows, weak spot buying and key support near $78K raise $65K risk.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin's (BTC) apparent demand metric dropped to -3,138 BTC on May 21, its lowest reading since mid-January, according to data from Capriole Investments. The figure has remained negative since Dec. 22, 2025. A brief partial recovery appeared in late February before the metric reversed sharply lower again.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pushed traders into a risk-off posture through the period. Spot market activity weakened in parallel with the demand decline. The aggregate spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) across major exchanges has stayed negative through the recent price pullback into the high-$70,000 range, according to Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain report.
Glassnode noted that broad-based spot accumulation has not yet returned to the market. US-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also moved to net selling. The 30-day change in ETF holdings dropped to its lowest point in nearly three months as of May 21.
Glassnode described the shift as a sign that outright spot demand is becoming less aggressive near current range highs. CryptoQuant said in its weekly report that BTC's overall demand has entered net contraction. Spot apparent demand is contracting at a slightly faster pace than in prior weeks, the firm added.
When spot demand and ETF flows deteriorate at the same time, conditions have historically pointed toward renewed price weakness rather than stable consolidation, CryptoQuant concluded.
True Market Mean Becomes the Key Level
BTC rallied 38% from a macro low of $60,000 to a high of $82,800, pushing it above the true market mean, now at $78,300. Glassnode defines that model as a price level tracking the average acquisition cost of actively transacted supply. The firm said it has historically served as the dividing line between bear and bull market conditions.
Glassnode said reclaiming the true market mean is a necessary but insufficient condition for a structural market shift. Prior cycles required weeks to months of sustained consolidation around that level before a bull market regime could be confirmed, the firm noted. Between March and October 2021, BTC held near the true market mean for over six months before breaking into a 174% rally to its then-record high.
A deeper correction from current levels would reframe the recent rally as a local top within a continuing bear market, according to Glassnode. The firm said that outcome has recurred multiple times in prior cycles and remains the higher-probability scenario until BTC shows sustained upward follow-through. Other analysts have separately flagged fading momentum, declining retail participation, aggressive futures selling, and a weakening technical structure as risks that could push BTC toward $65,000 if $78,000 does not hold.
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.
