Bitcoin long-term holder supply neared a record high as analysts said new BTC lows look increasingly unlikely.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin's (BTC) long-term holder supply has reached 16.3 million BTC, a level that is approaching the all-time high set in January 2024. It also breaks a downtrend in that metric that had been in place for roughly two and a half years, according to on-chain data.
Long-term holders are defined as investors who have held BTC for at least 155 days. This cohort now controls 71.6% of the circulating supply. Their holdings have grown by more than 2 million coins since BTC hit its record above $126,000 in October 2025. In the past month alone, long-term holder supply rose by approximately 200,000 BTC.
The previous comparable level was recorded in January 2024. At that point, long-term holder supply reached 16.4 million BTC ahead of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch. In the months that followed, nearly 2 million BTC was distributed by this cohort as prices rallied. Current data shows accumulation rather than distribution.
RSI Signal Adds to Bullish Case
Crypto analyst Sykodelic said the probability of BTC forming new lows has "become extremely slim." He pointed to the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) retesting the 50 level after an oversold reading as the basis for that view. This pattern has appeared four times in BTC's history. Three of those four instances led to long-term price expansion. The 2022 cycle was the lone exception. That period included the collapse of the FTX exchange, which forced a broad market sell-off. In that case, the RSI never reclaimed the 50 level during the recovery attempt.
Crypto analyst CryptoZeno said the one-year-plus holder supply metric has returned to an accumulation zone he described as "oversold." He said prior instances of the metric reaching this level preceded major upside cycles in 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022. He also noted that cycle peaks in 2017 and 2021 formed when long-term holder distribution accelerated sharply. That pattern is not present in the current data.
Miner behavior points to more cautious positioning. Analyst Pelin Ay noted that Binance Pool miner reserves dropped to 41,915 from 41,987 in May. She said Binance Pool accounts for a significant share of global hashrate. Falling reserves typically indicate that miners are still sending supply to exchanges, she added. The Miner Position Index remains below levels historically associated with panic selling. The Puell Multiple is also below 1, indicating continued revenue pressure across the mining sector. Ay described the current pattern as a "wait phase" typically seen near cycle bottoms.
The combination of deep long-term holder accumulation and constrained available supply reflects a market structure that has historically preceded upward price movement, according to CryptoZeno. The current cycle's technical recovery signals have remained intact in a way the 2022 exception did not.
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.
