Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could reclaim $126K this year as AI spending and money printing fuel liquidity growth.
Bitcoin News
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of crypto investment fund Maelstrom, says Bitcoin ( BTC) will reclaim its all-time high of $126,000 this year, citing money printing driven by the AI race and geopolitical tensions as key catalysts. Hayes published his outlook in a Substack post on May 12.
Hayes argued that the competition between the US and China to lead in AI has pushed both nations toward looser financial conditions and expanded credit creation, because the technology "directly relates to national security." He said the combination of political will and printed money produces favorable conditions for crypto.
"There will be vastly more units of fiat tomorrow than today, and the rate of change is accelerating due to rapidly increasing yearly AI and electrification CAPEX expenditures," Hayes wrote. He added that war is inherently inflationary and that ongoing geopolitical tensions are no different.
Military spending and a shift by other nations toward domestic #infrastructure investment, rather than US Treasurys and equities, will lead to further money printing, Hayes said. He had also predicted in March that the US Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy in response to geopolitical tensions and boost crypto markets.
"The politicians support this money printing out of real and perceived necessity. That is why Bitcoin post-February 28th is outperforming the other major risky assets such as gold and US tech stocks," Hayes wrote. Bitcoin was trading around $81,000 as of Wednesday, up more than 31% from its Feb. 6 low of $62,822, according to CoinMarketCap.
Gold rose approximately 2% over the same period, moving from around $4,581 at the start of February to $4,710. Hayes framed Bitcoin's gains as a signal that the market is already pricing in the inflationary dynamics he described.
"Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion," Hayes said. He added that he expects the rally to accelerate sharply once $BTC pushes through $90,000, at which point call option writers would rush to cover positions as their strike prices are breached.
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