CryptoQuant says Bitcoin has reached a historical bear market resistance zone near its 200-day moving average.
Bitcoin ($BTC) has reached a key historical resistance level that previously preceded a sharp price decline, according to crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm published a report on May 13 flagging the 200-day moving average as a critical zone that has historically marked the ceiling of bear market rallies.
$BTC hit the 200-day moving average of $82,400 after rallying over six weeks from a low of $66,000 in early April. CryptoQuant noted that the same level acted as major resistance in the 2022 bear market, where Bitcoin resumed its downtrend after testing it in March of that year.
Traders' unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, their highest point since June 2025. CryptoQuant said this level of unrealized gains mirrors conditions seen in March 2022, precisely when $BTC last tested the 200-day moving average before declining. The firm described the reading as a sign of potential #selling pressure.
Signs of profit-taking have already emerged. Daily realized profits jumped to their highest level since early December last week, with traders cashing out 14,600 $BTC, worth nearly $1.2 billion, on May 4. CryptoQuant said that in bear market rallies, spikes of that magnitude have historically preceded local price tops.
$BTC has fallen 2.3% in the past 24 hours to $79,300. The latest dip came after the US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the largest increase in four years, adding to #inflation concerns. Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has grown.
If a decline follows, CryptoQuant placed the next key support level at around $70,000, which represents the average price at which all $BTC was last transacted. The firm described this zone as the average cost basis of short-term traders and a level where unrealized profit margins compress toward zero, reducing the incentive to sell further.
Not all analysts share the bearish view. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said on May 13 that Bitcoin "might see a fast move" to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the long-awaited CLARITY Act. Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes said Tuesday that $BTC reclaiming its all-time high of $126,000 was a "foregone conclusion," citing anticipated money supply expansion tied to geopolitical competition and government spending.
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