CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin bull-bear indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, signaling a possible recovery phase.
Bitcoin News
CryptoQuant's Bitcoin (BTC) bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12 for the first time since March 2023. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's on-chain market analyst, said the reading suggests the market structure may be starting to recover. He described it as an important regime-change signal while noting that past instances have not always led to sustained price gains.
Moreno said that when the indicator has previously moved out of bear territory and into the early bull zone, it has often marked the end of the worst phase of a correction. He pointed to green readings in 2019 and early 2023 as instances that preceded stronger bullish trends. He also flagged March 2022 as a key exception, when the indicator turned green but the market moved into a deeper downtrend shortly after.
Why $82,000 Matters Now
BTC has recovered approximately 35% from lows near $60,000 reached in February 2026. Despite that rebound, the asset has repeatedly failed to clear $82,000, a resistance level that has held through multiple attempts this month. Moreno said breaking that level decisively is necessary to confirm the bullish shift the indicator is pointing toward.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and former senior market analyst at eToro, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a trading signal. He said it has historically been most useful for identifying when BTC stops behaving like a bear-market asset. Greenspan added that real confirmation comes from sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels after the signal fires.
Moreno said the May 2026 reading is more complicated than prior early-cycle entries. The Fear & Greed index is currently neutral, and the macroeconomic backdrop is more complex than in previous cycles. He said the recovery in the 30-day moving average suggests improving momentum beneath the surface, but that price action must confirm it.
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, said he believes BTC has already found its cycle bottom at $60,000. He identified $90,000 as the level at which upward momentum could accelerate toward prior highs near $126,000. Hayes did not reference the CryptoQuant indicator directly in his comments.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, said metrics such as MVRV and NUPL are often misread as precise buy or sell signals. He said they are better understood as behavioral frameworks for identifying where BTC sits within a broader liquidity cycle. Fernandes added that the green reading supports a recovery thesis but does not replace the need for on-chain and price confirmation. #Bitcoin #crypto #onchain #BullRun
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