A Bitcoin whale is holding an $81M BTC short despite nearly $13M in unrealized losses as prices climb above $81K.
Bitcoin News
A trader known on-chain as "pension-usdt.eth" is holding a short position on 1,000 Bitcoin (BTC) worth approximately $81.06 million, opened when BTC was priced at $67,990.
With BTC climbing to around $81,000 to $82,000 by May 12, the position had accumulated an unrealized loss of just under $13 million, according to data from HypurrScan(dot)IO.
The trader is using 3x cross leverage on the BTC short. A separate 20,000 Ethereum (ETH) short worth approximately $46.1 million brings their total bearish exposure to more than $127 million. Funding collected across both positions has added over $125,000, a figure well below the current unrealized drawdown.
Despite the loss, pension-usdt.eth confirmed on May 12 that the position remains open and that the trade still makes sense. The trader had previously recorded 20 consecutive winning trades and maintained a win rate above 85%, according to on-chain data resource Lookonchain.
Analysts Split on Whether BTC Bear Cycle Has Ended
The BTC short faces full #liquidation if the price reaches $100,810. Prediction market platform Kalshi shows bettors placing a 50% probability on BTC hitting $100,000 at some point in 2026.
Technical analysts have identified a resistance zone near $82,430 that could limit further upside. That level aligns with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. A breakdown from the wedge would set a measured downside target near $71,500, which would reduce pension-usdt.eth's unrealized loss to approximately $3.5 million.
Analyst Crypto Kid said the last two times BTC retested the 200-day SMA at the same point in its four-year cycle, the price fell an average of 68%. A comparable drop from current levels would push BTC below $30,000 and turn pension-usdt.eth's short into a profit of approximately $38 million.
Other analysts argue the current BTC setup does not resemble prior bear cycles. Analyst CRG noted that during the 2022 downturn, BTC never closed a single day above the Ichimoku cloud, and that the eventual breakout above it marked the start of a new #bull market. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, said in a May 12 post that the current cycle has materially decoupled from past patterns, attributing BTC's relative strength to steady ETF inflows and continued accumulation by treasury companies such as Strategy.
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