NYDIG warned the Senate’s crypto market structure bill must pass before August or face post-midterm delays.
The US Senate's crypto market structure bill must clear a floor vote by August or risk stalling entirely, according to Greg Cipolaro, head of research at financial services firm NYDIG.
Cipolaro issued the warning in a Friday note, pushing back on a July 4 target set earlier this month by a senior White House crypto adviser, who said there was sufficient time for a Senate markup, floor vote, and House vote within that window. Cipolaro called that benchmark "aspirational rather than a fixed legislative deadline," placing the realistic passage window between June and early August.
The bill, known as the CLARITY Act, passed a long-delayed markup in the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a vote that ran largely along party lines. It now heads to the Senate floor, where it requires 60 votes to avoid prolonged debate and advance. The majority party holds 53 Senate seats and needs at least seven opposition senators to clear that threshold, though some have raised concerns that the bill does not go far enough in addressing crime and sanctions evasion.
The legislation has been repeatedly delayed as lawmakers and lobbyists sought to amend provisions around Stablecoins, government officials' use of crypto, and decentralized finance enforcement. If those negotiations stall further, Cipolaro said scheduling delays alone could push the bill past the viable window.
Congress enters recess from late July to early September, after which the Senate returns to a period dominated by midterm election positioning. Cipolaro said Senate leadership is "unlikely to schedule a contested 60-vote floor fight" in that environment, making the pre-recess window the most actionable opportunity for passage.
If the bill misses that window, Cipolaro said the remaining pathway with the highest probability becomes a post-election lame-duck session, but only if the current majority retains the Senate and Senate leadership makes the bill a priority over competing government funding deadlines. Current polling and prediction markets show a tight Senate race, with some forecasts giving the majority party a slight edge while others rate key seats as tossups.
Should the opposition gain control of the chamber, Cipolaro said the current majority-backed bill is unlikely to advance when the next Congress convenes in January. He framed the core dilemma as a trade-off between accepting an imperfect bipartisan framework in 2026 versus facing a substantially different legislative environment after the midterms.
Passage would deliver meaningful benefits for Bitcoin specifically, classifying it as a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and closing what Cipolaro described as "the last significant regulatory overhang for Bitcoin as an institutional asset class." He added that broader CryptoRegulation clarity would also give major institutions the legal confidence to deepen their exposure to digital assets. Failure, by contrast, would leave the industry operating under what Cipolaro called "permanent jurisdictional ambiguity."
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