Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Adoption & Revenue Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL's value is intrinsically tied to the success of its stablecoin, USD0. The protocol generates revenue primarily from yield on the US Treasury Bills backing USD0. A project blog states 100% of this revenue flows to the treasury and is redistributed: 70% for buybacks and 30% as weekly USD0 payments to USUALx stakers. This creates a direct, non-speculative cash flow to token holders. Catalysts include the launch of new yield products (like sUSD0) and the expansion of seamless EUR on/off-ramps via virtual IBANs, which could boost European adoption.

What this means: Increased Total Value Locked (TVL) in USD0 translates directly to higher protocol revenue. This revenue is programmatically used to buy USUAL off the market, reducing circulating supply and applying consistent buy-side pressure. For example, the team reported 15.7M USUAL bought back in July 2025. This mechanism provides a fundamental price support that strengthens with adoption.

2. Competitive & Regulatory Landscape (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Usual operates in the highly concentrated stablecoin market dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Its key differentiator is community ownership and transparency versus corporate profit capture. However, it must compete for liquidity and integrations. On the regulatory front, the passing of the U.S. GENIUS Act in May 2025 established a framework for stablecoin regulation, which could legitimize compliant protocols but also raise barriers to entry.

What this means: Clear, favorable regulation could attract institutional capital to transparent, RWA-backed models like Usual, acting as a major bullish catalyst. Conversely, if regulations favor traditional financial institutions or impose prohibitive compliance costs, it could limit Usual's growth. Its success hinges on executing its niche strategy faster than incumbents can adapt or new regulations can constrain it.

3. Tokenomics Execution & Security Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: While the buyback model is bullish, its effectiveness depends on sustained revenue and flawless execution. The protocol has faced significant security challenges; BlockSec detected and halted a sophisticated hacking attempt on May 28, 2025. Furthermore, a similar yield-bearing stablecoin, Resolv's USR, suffered a $25M exploit in March 2026 due to a known oracle flaw, highlighting systemic risks in the sector.

What this means: Any successful exploit could destroy user trust and lead to a mass exodus of TVL, crippling the revenue stream that powers the tokenomics. The bearish technical picture—with price down 89% over the past year and RSI indicating oversold conditions—reflects market pricing in these execution and security risks. Confidence in the team's ability to manage these risks is a prerequisite for the bullish thesis to play out.

Conclusion

USUAL's future is a high-conviction bet on its unique revenue-sharing model overcoming fierce competition and ever-present DeFi risks. For a holder, this means price is less about hype and more about the measurable growth of USD0's TVL and the team's operational resilience.

Will rising protocol revenue from new products outpace the market's fear of the next potential exploit?